Delhi Election : Triumph of hope over experience.
" Triumph of hope over experience", observed the famous English author, Samuel Johnson, when asked about the second marriage. I remembered this when I saw the results of Delhi election on my TV screen on the February 10.
Arvind Kejriwal was in power for 49 days. He reduced power and water tariff. He asked CAG (Controller & Auditor General) to audit the accounts of power distribution companies. He sat on dharna to get Delhi Police under the Delhi Government. He even threatened to disrupt Republic Parade. He accused all other parties of corruption. He asked people to record a video of bribes given to police and other government employees to take action against them. Then, suddenly, he resigned. He filed his nomination paper against Narendra Modi in Benaras. He travelled to Gujarat and declared that there was no progress there. He seems to be in a hurry. It was all theatrical, and his campaign was more a satire on politics than politics itself.
Since AAP was able to get 28 seats reducing the Congress to the third place in its maiden election in Delhi, AAP plunged into the general election in a big way. After the drubbing in the Lok Sabha election, Kejriwal came back to Delhi and promised the people of Delhi drastic reduction in water and power tariffs, new schools and colleges, and many other amenities. Now the people of Delhi have given him a second chance ignoring his theatre of the absurd. Now the big question is, how will Kejriwal and his friends are going to fulfil the promises to the people ?
Poll victory do not ensure good governence.
Delhi has given AAP a fantastic victory - 67 out of 70 seats with 54.3 percent of the votes cast in the election. No other party has got such a huge majority in India (96 percent seats) with the exception of Sikkim where all the seats were won by a regional party in 1989 and 2009 but only 97 percent ( 31 seats) in 2004. Aam Admi Party (AAP) led by Arvind Kejriwal has surpassed not just Narendra Modi's success in the May 2014 general election but that of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi as well.
Narendra Modi won 282 seats out of 543 Lok Sabha ( NDA- 336), a feat achieved after 30 years. Indira Gandhi had won 352 seats out of 545 Lok Sabha seats in 1969 and Rajiv Gandhi was able to get 404 out of 533 Lok Sabha seats in 1984. Kejriwal was able to capture 67 out of 70 seats of the Delhi Assembly in 2015. It is a awesome majority and a awesome responsibility as well.
Indira Gandhi swept the polls with the slogan, 'garibi hatao', and nationalised banks and insurance companies, and imposed highest marginal tax of about 97.5 percent on income tax and abolished privy purses of princes guaranteed by the Government of India when they merged their kingdoms with India. However,the 'garibi hatao' slogan remained a slogan. The Congress under the leadership of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, changed the slogan to 'Congress ka hath, Aam Admi ke sath' , but the unending saga of 'garibi hatao' continues, 45 years after the slogan was coined. Today, almost 400 million people are poor - below the poverty line, a ridiculously low amount, drawn by the Planning Commission.
Rajiv Gandhi talked about 21st century in 1984 but the country had to pay a high price for his inexperience. He was not able to deal with the corruption involved in the purchase of Bofors Gun, deliver justice in the Shahbanu case and he started the Babri-Masjid-Ram Janmabhoomi controversy by opening its gates, and involved India in the dispute between the government of Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers.
BJP leader Narendra Modi won the 2014 election with the slogan of development and good governance in India, and he has asked people to give him 60 months to change the face of the country. In the last 8 months he has invited Indian and foreign businessmen to invest in manufacturing industries to generate employment by promising red carpet instead of red-tape. He has empowered the poor with an account in the banks to save their hard-earned money, and avail a small overdraft and an insurance cover for accidental death." Swatch Bharat" and 'Clean Ganga' movements have been launched. Japan, China and USA have agreed to invest in 'smart cities', railways, and solar power. He seeks to make investment easy for business people and create more employment for skilled, un-skilled and educated youth of India.
Modi's advantage is his experience as the Chief Minister of Gujarat for 12 years, and how he made it a successful model for investment and employment. He provided water to farmers with his programme of bunds and check-dams, and agriculture in Gujarat grew by about 10 percent for ten years. He has ensured that Gujarat has 24-hours power supply, probably the only state in the country. He has promoted tourism in a big way to create employment and livlihood for artisans.
Promises of AAP.
1.15 lakh CCTV cameras in Delhi; 2. Home guards for ever bus; 3. Free housing for all slum-dwellers; 4.Regularisation of unthorised colonies; 5. Lowering of VAT; 6.Free Wi-Fi for the entire City-state; 7.New colleges ( 20 ); 8. New Jobs ( 8 lakh); 9. Contract workers to be made permanent ( 55,000); 10. Delhi to be turned into a solar city; 11. Ending bribery - people have been asked to give bribe but record the same by their mobile phone; 12. Water suppl to every home; 13. Water supply at half the rate ( 24-hour).
The above are some of the promises out of 70-point programme mentioned in the Manifesto of AAP. No wonder, AAP was able to notch 67 out of the 70 seats of the Delhi Assembly with a overwhelming 54.3 percent of the total votes cast in the election. " It is really scarry, the majority that people have given us," exclaimed Arvind Kejriwal after the result.
AAP followed in the footsteps of all our other political parties. Many states give concessional tariff on power to some sections of society ( farmers and residential consumers), and some provide free electricty to agriculture. All states give food-grains at a very low cost to the poor. Tamil Nadu leads the way in freebies - if DMK promises free TV, AIADMK offers TV plus grinder/mixer. Congress has also excelled in this competition. Many surveys have pointed out the huge leakages in these programmes. All these years and all these parties have wooed the electorate with such freebies.
In the name of the poor, many politicians have ruled India and its states Poverty has remained. Doctor has changed but the remedies have remained the same - subsidy, freebies, reservations. All these parties promise to give fish to people, not teach them how to fish.Nobody has talked about universal education, universal primary health-care, water conservation and rain-water harvesting, encouraging private investment and creation of employment opportunities, 24-hour power supply.
How long state can provide subsidy ?
Experts have stated that half of the budget of Delhi is spent on salaries and non-plan expenditure,and the other half is spent on transport, health, education, water supply, housing, urban development, energy, and welfare sectors.Infrastructure is starved of funds. Almost 85 percent of the budget comes from taxes and the 15 percent from plan assistance and other non-tax revenue. On top of that, AAP has promised to reduce VAT which constitutes 67 percent of the revenue of Delhi. So one is left wondering where is the money for all the subsidies that AAP has promised the Delhi electorate ?
Two economists,Surjit S.Bhalla and Prasanthi Ramakrishnan, have elaborated on the water economics of Delhi under the title, " No such thing as free water" (IE,18/2).Nearly 25 percent of the households ( 8.3 lakh households) do not have access to piped water, according to the 2013 CAG report of 2013. And they pertinently ask, " A basic question: what would the poor prefer : free or cheap water for two hours or water all day at a higher price, or equivalently , electricity 24X7 or two hours of electricity for half price?"
The staehood for Delhi has been one of the demands of AAP. This was also in the manifesto of BJP earlier.Kejriwal has already taken it up with the Prime Minister who has promised to consider it. It is likely that the Central Government would be consulting other parties and if there is a consensus, it may happen sooner than later. Nobody wants to give an excuse to Kejriwal to go back on his promises. If Delhi becomes a full-fledged state, it will have land, police and public order under its jurisdiction. It will have the power and responsibility to provide good governance and make good the promises to the people.
Kejriwal was part of the agitation against corruption under the leadership of Anna Hazare. He continued his agitational approach to governance during his 49-day regime. His party has the overwhelming majority and now he has an opportunity to solve the problems of the people of Delhi. Just now he has joined the agitation against land legislation initiated by Anna Hazare. It is not clear what is in store for the citizens of Delhi - good governance or good agitation. Let's all wait and see what succeeds - hope or experience.
February 24,2015.
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