Monday, November 23, 2009

Positive and negative developments in Indian economy.



Shri Subir Gokarn's views presented in the Business Standard are from the narrow perspective of the middle class. He said that there are three positives in the Indian Economy - massive increase in the economy's capacity to absorb shocks; economic developments do not depend on political developments;increase in the scope, depth and innovativeness of the private sector. The three negatives are : slow growth of the middle class; Indian economy is not yet an engine of growth in South Asia; growing mismatch between the demand on the state's resources and its capacity to deliver on them.  

Let us look from the perspective of a common man. How empowered is the common man today compared to his position a few decades ago.

The positives are :
Indians need not go to the ration shop to get food-grains;

middle class people can get their bike/cars off the shelf and need not wait for years;

almost 300 million people have a mobile and earlier phone was a luxury;

industrialists need not go to Delhi for every license and permit but of course they have to depend on the state governments for power,water,land etc which leads to conflict of interest ;

transport - air, bus and train- has improved but yet to get clean and decent airports, railway stations and bus stations.       

However, there are many negatives :

Almost 50 percent of the people in Mumbai and other cities live in slums;

There is water scarcity everywhere - cities, towns and villages; we have failed to use monsoon waters and harness our river waters

Village people are not empowered with health and education facilities and with employment avenues, and they come to cities and towns in search of work; 

Almost 60 percent of people depend on agriculture and agriculture contributes about 20 percent of GDP. That means 40 percent of people from cities and towns contribute 80 percent of GDP and there is vast gulf between cities and villages;

Agriculture is not remunerative and agriculturists have no knowledge of modern agriculture. They use more fertilizers, they use wrong seeds, they don't get credit at reasonable interest and commit suicide.

Focus should be on agriculture, empower village youth with education, not just literacy, but vocational education including modern agricultural knowledge. PURA - Providing urban facilities in rural areas - mooted by our former President Abdul Kalam should be adopted in all states. He has suggested knowledge connectivity (education), physical connectivity (roads) electronic connectivity (telecom) and economic connectivity (trade).

Lack of economic development in villages leads to Naxalite violence and slums in cities 

We cannot have island of prosperity in the midst of poverty.

November 23, 2009.

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