UPA government is in a predicament. It has entered into a agreement with USA which would allow India to access the latest nuclear power technologies and the dual-use technologies which were denied to it after the 'peaceful' atomic test conducted in 1974 which was claimed to be just a 'technology demonstration'. Since the Leftists are opposed to any co-operation with USA, leave alone strategic alliance, UPA government has not been able to get a majority to support this agreement. The opposition NDA wants to re-negotiate it with better terms from USA.
Nuclear energy as an option has been mooted by some energy experts after the recent hike in crude oil price to $135 per barrel. The expected increase in the consumption of crude oil in the next decade by China,India and other developing countries has made many experts to forecast that it may reach $200 within the next few years. This is the view of Arjun N.Murti, an analyst with Goldman Sachs Group Inc who had made the prediction about the recent surge few years ago and was laughed at. Now others like Svein Rennemo, the chairman of Norway's StatoilHydro ASA also agree that the price of crude oil may reach that level. This is corroborated by the statistics of the International Energy Agency which expects the global oil consumption is likely to go up from 84.6 million barrels per day in 2006 to 98.5 million by 2015 and 116.3 million by 2030. This, and the fear of global warming has given a boost to nuclear energy all over the world.
Nuclear Option.
It is in this context that we have to understand the reservations expressed by Michio Kaku, co-founder of string field theory and professor of theoretical physics at City University, New York, in the Times of India( 14/5). In an interview, he said, " Going for nuclear energy is like jumping from the frying pan into the fire". Apart from the risk of proliferation, he mentioned vulnerability to accidents and meltdowns, radio-active waste disposal and the impossibility of increasing nuclear energy by 10 to 50 times to make a dent on global warming as reasons for his reservations on the use of nuclear power. He believes that the world has to go for solar and hydrogen energy in the next 15/20 years when it would be cost-effective.
Moreover, the nuclear option has its price. The international price of uranium has gone up from $20 to $85 in the last three years, says Dr.P.K.Iyengar, former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission. Dr.Iyengar has reservation on some of the conditions in Indo-US Nuclaer Pact like the right of USA to withdraw all the nuclear material if India conducts a nuclear test and severely constrain our strategic programme as India is surrounded by nuclear powers. Just as the crude oil cartel has hiked the price, the uranium cartel can increase the price in the next few years. This option has many risks.
In view of the limited uranium available in the country which may be necessary for our defense purposes, we have to look for conventional ( coal and hydro ) and non-conventional resources ( solar, wind, bio-gas, etc. ) abundantly available in our country.
Energy security is, after all, as important as food security. If India is able to produce enough food-grains for its people with a green revolution, it can also produce enough electricity both from conventional as well as non-conventional energy sources if there is a will to use our technical and financial resources for that purpose.
Power Situation.
The Ministry of Power gives the following information on power situation in India as on April 30,2008.
Thermal (Coal,Gas & Oil) – 92,156.84 MW ( 64.6%).
Hydro (renewable) - 35,908.76 MW ( 24.7%).
Nuclear - 4,120.00 MW ( 2.9 %).
Renewable Energy Sources - 11,125.41 MW (7.7%).
Total Power Generation - 1,43,311.01 MW
( Renewable Energy Sources include small hydro projects, biomas gasifier, wind energy etc.)
Hydro-power.
India has a vast potential in hydro-power which is estimated to be to the tune of 150,000 MW of which only about 25% has been utilized and 25% more is being developed. The Economic Survey (2007-2008) states that the main reasons for the slow development o hydro-power are inaccessible potential sites, problems of land acquisition, rehabilitation, environmental and forest-related issues, inter-state issues, geographical surprises and long gestation period. However, when we compare these problems with that of obtaining oil and uranium supplies from world cartels which may even impinge on our strategic autonomy, our problems with hydro-power are negligible and within our control. There is a need to expedite exploiting this source of energy.
The Thermal power.
Coal has been the mainstay of our electricity generation ( 62.2%) and it will continue to be so for a long time to come as we have large coal reserves. Now we are importing about 10 MT high quality coal ( 2006-7) as well. The use of coal gasification technology would go a long way in reducing pollution (greenhouse gases, toxic heavy metals, sulphur which cause acid rain) and using our low quality coal. Anglo-Dutch Shell company has operated a 123-megawatt power plant using its coal gasification technology in the Netherlands since 1993. And this technology has been licensed to 20 plants in the world, especially to China. A Chinese company, Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Group, has given a contract to Siemens to supply two 500 MW plants last year. India does not seem to have done much in this regard. Coal India and ONGC have entered into a joint venture with Ergo Energy for a project in underground coal gasification about two years ago.
Another issue that requires urgent attention from our government is the transmission and distribution (T & D) losses in our thermal power plants which varies from 25 to 60 percent in various states. A study by The Associated Chamber of Commerce (ASSOCHAM) in 2007 states that India can eliminate severe power shortage if power companies can reduce the transmission and distribution losses by 50 percent. If the T & D losses are not reduced , almost one-third (Rs.270,000 crore) would be lost from the total outlay of Rs.810,000 crore investment to add 78,000 MW in power sector envisaged during the 11th Plan period. Everyone percentage reduction in T & D losses would save 800MW of power for the country.
Non-conventional energy is viable.
India also has vast potential in non-conventional energy. The Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy estimates that India has a potential to set up 12 million bio-gas plants, 120 million improved chulhas, 19,500 MW of biomass, 20 MW/sq.km solar energy, 20,000 MW of wind energy, 10,000 MW of small hydro projects, 50,000 MW of ocean thermal energy and 1700 MW using urban and industrial waste.
According to the ministry, we have been able to utilize a small portion of the potential. There are 3 million family-size bio-gas plants, 32 million thermal efficient chulhas, 34 MW biomass gasifier,970 MW wind energy,222 MW biomass power generating systems, 217 MW small hydro power projects and 15 MW power from waste.
India has not tapped non-conventional energy as we are also addicted to oil like the western countries. We also have a fascination for nuclear energy as it is an "in" thing now. However the future is with the non-conventional energy as it is perennial, non-polluting and eco-friendly.
Says Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute " Nuclear power is not economically viable compared to wind and solar energy." and adds, "In the oil-rich state of Texas in the US 23,000 MW of electricity is produced through wind power... The three states – Texas, North Dakota and Kansas – have wind power potential to meet the electricity needs of the whole of the US...Similarly, Algeria has the potential to generate solar power that could meet the needs of the European countries. So, it is commercially viable. Already, Algeria is exporting 6,000 MW of power to Europe through an under-sea connection".
Task ahead
We should have been the pioneers in solar technology as we have 250 to 300 days of sun shine in this country. Wind energy should be used wherever possible. Simultaneously, we have to do intensive research in hydrogen and geothermal energy.
Massive programme of mass transportation in all our towns and cities would go a long way in reducing pollution and energy consumption. Bringing down T & D losses and energy conservation should also receive top priority.
Solar energy and gobar-gas energy can provide electricity to all our village homes. If we can train village youth in maintaining gobar-gas plants and solar energy equipment, there will not merely electricity but more jobs in the villages. It would also encourage literacy and education. It would brighten our villages which are either in the dark or get a few hours of electricity. It would also open up a new world to the villages with internet and TV. I could reduce migration to the city and its bright light. The money spent on rural employment could be used to construct houses, primary schools, primary health-care and provide electricity. It would strengthen Panchayati Raj. Self-sufficient village economy is the dream of Mahatma Gandhi and providing urban facilities to the rural areas is the dream of our former President Abdul Kalam.
The energy availability for all and energy security for our country is a national task and requires the co-operation all - the politicians, bureaucrats, corporates, NGOs and the common people. It is possible to do it if we plan it like the green revolution.
June19,2008
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